June 2024 Housing Market Statistics – Calm… (Too Calm?)

The Ottawa Real Estate Board has released the statistics for June 2024 (find them here), and the news is that if you are looking at prices, the real estate market is really, really calm…. 

Maybe too calm?

Prices are holding up well, but under the surface, rising inventories could raise concerns about the next few months ..

Here are the takeaways from June’s statistics. 

• The benchmark single family was down 0.2% from June 2023. Essentially unchanged. 
• The benchmark townhome was down 1.6%, the benchmark condo was down 1.7% from the same time in 2023. Not a big move but interesting to note that single family homes are holding up better.
• The dollar value of all homes sold was up 0.7% from June 2023. Again this not a big move. 
• The number of new listings was up 4.7% from June 2023. 
• The number of properties on the market was up 45.5% from June 2023. This is a big increase but it is less than the increase last month when it was up 59% from the year before.
• Months of inventory were up to 2.5 from 1.7 last year. 

In my opinion, the most important statistic to keep an eye on right now is inventory. Housing inventory is what you call a leading indicator in the housing market. As the inventory (measured in months of supply) goes up, houses will tend to sit on the market and prices will tend to move down. As the inventory goes down, houses will tend to sell quickly and with multiple offers, and the price of housing will tend to rise. Generally speaking, about 2 months of inventory is the level where the market is balanced, and with the Ottawa market currently hovering at  2.5 months of inventory I would say that Ottawa is currently in a very mild buyer’s market.

And of course, you can’t really mention this month’s real estate statistics without noting that the Bank of Canada reduced rates by .25% earlier this month. While the effect of these rate changes is likely small in the short term, the change in trend might bring more optimism and more buyers to the market. 

The final verdict? Prices are flat, inventory is up, prices will likely trend gently downward over the next few months unless more rate hikes stimulate supply – which most people are expecting.

As always, I recommend making housing decisions based on your personal needs and goals, and not letting the market weigh too much on your decision making. 

If you are interested in finding out what your property is worth in today’s market, reach out for a free estimate.